Is Chris Godwin a First Round Fantasy Pick in 2020?

As the 2020 Fantasy Football season (hopefully) draws closer, it’s about the time to start digging into a bit of Fantasy Football draft research. I typically don’t really start digging into this stuff until at least Independence Day, but with the Pandemic limiting our sports viewing options, I’m a bit starved for content.

So, I recently watched the first part of a NFL.com fantasy mock draft with the idea of getting a bit of an early look at what the experts were thinking. The format was a 10-team PPR League with a QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE, and Flex.

The first few picks went just as I would have guessed. McCaffrey, Barkley, Elliot went 1, 2, & 3. Micheal Thomas went as the first WR with the 4th pick.

With the 5th overall pick, Adam Rank took Chris Godwin. I thought for a second I had hit a button on my keyboard and jumped ahead a couple minutes, but no, that was his pick. What furthered my surprise was that Marcus Grant then said he was about to take Godwin with the 6th pick. Wait, what?

To be extra clear, I really like Chris Godwin. I just had no idea that as of late May 2020, he was a first round consideration by some people in the fantasy industry.

I jumped on Google and soon discovered that the good folks at NFL.com were not the only ones who ranked Godwin that high. In the wrap up post by Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports, he notes that Godwin went 5th overall in a 12 team PPR mock draft. Eisenberg says he feels the Godwin pick in that mock draft was too soon, but that he is still a “borderline first-round pick in all leagues.”

Is it All About Tom Brady?

The logic is that he will be the slot receiver for Tom Brady in 2020. I get the logic. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman have had big fantasy season as Brady’s “slot guy.” But does that really make Godwin a first round pick?

Brady has beaten back father time as good or better than any NFL QB ever. Even in his 40s, he still managed to make New England a perennial Super Bowl favorite. In 2020, we may have started to see some cracks in the game of Brady. His completion percentage was it’s lowest since 2004. ESPN’s QBR had Brady ranked 17th in 2019.

Or, we may have just seen the result of a player with limited talent at WR. Tampa Bay certainly does not have limited talent at receiver. Sure, Edelman notched 100 catches, but the 2nd highest reception total by a WR was 29 by Philip Dorsett. Brdy also didn’t have Gronk in 2019.

Conclusion?

Could Chris Godwin produce first found production in 2020? I wouldn’t be stunned, but I’m certainly not going to bank on it. Sure, he was the #2 WR in 2019 according to ESPN, NFL.com, FantasyPros.com and others. However, unless his ADP falls a bit from where it is today (early June), Chris Godwin likely won’t find his way onto any of my team this season. It just feels that too many things have to go right for Godwin to live up to a first round rank draft rank.